Caroline County, VA
Migration of people and income, 2022–2023 filing years
At a glance (2023)
Cost of living is the statewide price level for Virginia (state avg).
The cost of living runs about 1% above the national average. The median home is valued at $283,100 (nominal). Home prices have risen about 42% over the five years to 2023. Median rent is about $1,201 a month. Unemployment averaged 3.0% in 2023 (national 3.6%). Median household income is $86,267. These figures describe all residents, not just tax filers, come from separate sources than the migration data on this page, and do not indicate why anyone moved.
Between the 2022 and 2023 filing years, Caroline County, VA saw a net gain of 237 tax-filing households and a net gain of 596 individuals. Against a population of about 32,640, that is a net inflow of about 18 per 1,000 residents. On net, the area gained $27.2M in associated adjusted gross income (AGI, nominal dollars). The largest inflow, about 297 households, came from Spotsylvania County; the largest outflow, about 189 households, went to Spotsylvania County. In the prior (2022) filing year, the area saw a net gain of 520 individuals. These figures cover federal income tax filers only and do not indicate why people moved.
+18.3 net people per 1,000 residents (population 32,640)
Income (AGI) in and out
Caroline County within Virginia
Caroline County is outlined, with arrows tracing its largest moves to and from other Virginia counties. Hover any county for its figures; click to open it.
Where movers came from
- 1Spotsylvania County, VA297$19.3M
- 2Stafford County, VA159$10.7M
- 3Hanover County, VA71$4.2M
- 4Fredericksburg City, VA65$3.9M
- 5Henrico County, VA64$3.7M
- 6Prince William County, VA58$5.3M
- 7Chesterfield County, VA36$2.5M
- 8Fairfax County, VA36$2.7M
- 9King George County, VA31$2.4M
- 10Richmond City, VA28$1.7M
Where movers went
- 1Spotsylvania County, VA189$12.1M
- 2Stafford County, VA77$4.3M
- 3Henrico County, VA75$3.2M
- 4Hanover County, VA71$3.5M
- 5Fredericksburg City, VA47$2.3M
- 6Richmond City, VA41$1.2M
- 7Chesterfield County, VA37$2.1M
- 8King George County, VA24$992K
Churn by county · both directions at once
The biggest two-way exchanges of filing households, 2022–2023. Moved in and moved out are gross one-way counts; net is the difference. Click a column to sort.
| Spotsylvania County, VA | 297 | 189 | +108 | +$7.2M |
| Stafford County, VA | 159 | 77 | +82 | +$6.4M |
| Hanover County, VA | 71 | 71 | 0 | +$673K |
| Henrico County, VA | 64 | 75 | -11 | +$446K |
| Fredericksburg City, VA | 65 | 47 | +18 | +$1.6M |
| Chesterfield County, VA | 36 | 37 | -1 | +$383K |
| Richmond City, VA | 28 | 41 | -13 | +$440K |
| Prince William County, VA | 58 | — | — | — |
| King George County, VA | 31 | 24 | +7 | +$1.4M |
| Fairfax County, VA | 36 | — | — | — |
Counts are filing households (IRS returns), matching the lists above; income is nominal AGI. A dash means the IRS published only one direction of that exchange (small flows are suppressed), so no net is computed.
Net migration by year
| Year | Net AGI | Net people |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | -$3.8M | -122 |
| 2013 | +$6.6M | +377 |
| 2014 | +$4.4M | +96 |
| 2015 | -$358K | +85 |
| 2016 | +$1.8M | +292 |
| 2017 | +$10.5M | +400 |
| 2018 | +$7.2M | +101 |
| 2019 | +$2.1M | +3 |
| 2020 | +$1.9M | +174 |
| 2021 | +$20.1M | +495 |
| 2022 | +$25.3M | +520 |
| 2023 | +$27.2M | +596 |
How big is this move, relative to the county?
In the 2022–2023 filing year, about 596 more people moved into Caroline County, VA than left (counting tax filers and their dependents) — a net gain of about $27.2M in income (nominal) — in a county of 32,745 people.
The rate lets you compare Caroline County, VA with a countyof any size: it’s the net flow divided by population. The IRS counts tax filers; population counts all residents, so read the rate as a scale indicator, not a literal share of people.
Components of population change · 2023 (Census)
Where the county’s overall change came from. Census counts all residents; the IRS migration above is one slice of the domestic-migration component.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program. Figures are people, not tax filers.
What a dollar is worth here
Prices around Caroline County, VA run about 1% above the national average. In plain terms: $100 spent here buys about what $99 buys in the average American community. The figures below apply that to income, each compared to the U.S. average of $70,002 per person.
This county isn't in a metro area that BEA prices separately, so cost of living shows the Virginia (state avg) figure.
Where the cost comes from · price parity by category
Index where 100 = U.S. average for that category. Housing is usually what separates one place from another.
Housing is measured from rents (including an estimated rental value for owner-occupied homes), so a run-up in purchase prices shows here only as it reaches rents. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Covers all residents, a separate universe from the IRS filer income above. How the data works.
The people of Caroline County, VA
American Community Survey, 2019–2023 (a 5-year average of all residents, not just tax filers).
White, Black, and Asian counts are people who are not Hispanic or Latino; Hispanic or Latino can be of any race. Shares are rounded and may not total 100.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates. Covers all residents, a separate universe from the IRS filer data. A 5-year estimate is an average over 2019–2023; compare years at least five apart, since consecutive windows overlap. How the data works.
Housing · what it costs to live here (ACS 2019–2023)
A repeat-sales index (how much the same homes changed in price), so it tracks the market over time rather than the current level. Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, annual all-transactions HPI; the county series is FHFA’s developmental index.
Units authorized by residential building permits (new supply), summed from counties for the state and U.S. Permits are authorizations, not completions. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey.
Home value is what owners estimate their homes are worth, not recent sale prices. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2019–2023), nominal dollars. How the data works.
Jobs and natural hazards
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS) and FEMA. A disaster declaration marks federal assistance eligibility, not damage severity, and says nothing about why anyone moved. How the data works.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS). Monthly unemployment for this county, not seasonally adjusted. Updated every month, so it moves faster than the annual average above. How the data works.
Elections
National maps →How Caroline County, VA has voted. Certified returns, popular vote only. This is a separate dataset from the migration figures on this page.
| Year | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7,957 | 9,511 | 185 | R +8.8 | 17,653 |
| 2020 | 7,657 | 8,336 | 295 | R +4.2 | 16,288 |
| 2016 | 6,432 | 7,147 | 1,284 | R +4.8 | 14,863 |
| 2012 | 7,276 | 6,151 | 225 | D +8.2 | 13,652 |
| 2008 | 7,163 | 5,617 | 139 | D +12.0 | 12,919 |
| 2004 | 4,878 | 4,999 | 77 | R +1.2 | 9,954 |
| 2000 | 4,314 | 3,873 | 164 | D +5.3 | 8,351 |
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab county returns (CC0). Margins are the popular-vote gap as a share of all votes cast.
Get the next update for Caroline County, VA
The IRS releases new migration data once a year. Drop your email and we will send the refreshed numbers when they land. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.